Unemployment going up up up

Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that 533,000 net jobs were lost in November, the last month to see this kind of drop was December of 1974! So doing some rough estimates of employment data and economic predictions of the unemployment rate, I calculated out what the possible job losses may be if the unemployment rate creeps up over 9% (we'll hold labor force participation constant, even though it will probably go down until May when the labor force participation may increase some):

If, as what is commonly predicted by economists, the unemployment rate reaches 9%, then another 3.57 million net jobs will be lost.

If the unemployment rate increases to 9.5% then the economy would have to shed another 4.34 million net jobs.

If the most feared happens and the unemployment rate hits double digits, 10%, then another 5.1 million net jobs will still have to go.

Just a little food for thought.


(NOTE: Labor force participation (LFP) will likely decrease as a result of long term unemployment, it's been noted that thousands of people last month were taken off unemployment insurance, a product of long term unemployment. So in reality if the LFP does decrease then my estimates are low as it will take more people to become unemployed for the unemployment rate to reach over 9%, or it could just make the unemployment rate not increase as much as economists have been predicting.)